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So the latest IDC quarterly server report is saying that shipments of servers with Linux on them are on a downturn, compared to shipments of servers with Windows Server on them.
Game over, Linux, you are defeated.
Not.
(I have updated this article to make it more clear the point I’m trying to make.)Â
The main reason, that the eweek.com article, “Linux Losing Market Share to Windows Server” points out, is that the IDC survey numbers for Linux shipments on new servers are in decline mainly because the migration from older Unix systems to Linux-based replacements is slowing down, therefor translating into a downturn in demand for Linux on new servers.
Lets be clear about what the IDC survey covers. From their own site:
IDC’s server revenue includes components that are typically sold today as a server bundle, including frame or cabinet and all cables, processors, memory, communication boards, and OS
So basically, new server hardware and the OS that’s bundled with it. The survey is that narrow, and as such, it will be skewed out of all proportion to any real and meaningful usage figures. What I don’t seem to see is anything which mentions bare hardware with no OS bundled with it, because that might paint a completely different story to the one which is currently being painted by the likes of eweek, based on the IDC survey.
As an ex-IT manager, I know that I can buy hardware either with an OS or without. In my experience, we usually bought servers without an OS installed. Then we put Linux on it - Debian Linux to be precise, and Debian “Stable” at that, because we wanted to use a distribution of Linux we knew would be rock solid - the only package upgrades being security updates or bug fixes.
And it’s precisely that kind of Linux installation which will never register in IDC’s survey. And I can say this with absolute certainty that it’s this kind of activity which skews surveys like the one which IDC publishes completely out of kilter with the reality of just how many company servers are actually running Linux.
IDC even admit this:
IDC analyst Al Gillen pointed out that the number of servers shipped does not perfectly equal the number of operating systems in the market. This is particularly the case with Linux where a substantial portion of the overall market opportunity comes from deployments aboard recycled servers, PCs and workstations deployed as servers, and Linux deployed as a guest operating system.
But we do need to remember that the Linux software ecosystem does not track exactly the same as does x86 hardware shipments.
Indeed, it does not, for the very good reason that installing a Linux distribution on older hardware really does revitalise the usefulness of those old systems, saving companies shed-loads of cash in the process.
It’s also noteworthy to point out the increasing trend in installing Linux systems inside virtual machines, so you typically have a company buying say two or more nice big beefy servers, for example, then installing any number of Linux vm’s onto them. Someone pointed out that Windows installations are also being installed on these virtual machines, which of course is a good point and I add that point in this article for complete fairness. Are these Linux virtual machines being counted in any survey? Not that I know of. Please feel free to point them out to me if they exist.
If only there was a survey which counted the following;
New server hardware shipped with Linux
New server hardware shipped with Windows
New server hardware shipped with no OS
It would be interesting to see the figures on that, because I’m fairly certain, based on my own experience working in the IT industry, that new server hardware shipped without an OS has more than a 50% likelihood of eventually ending up running a Linux-based OS on it.
This brings me nicely onto a suggestion for the Linux Distribution makers; it would be nice if you could include a survey - doesn’t have to be particularly comprehensive - during the installation phase of your respective distributions, which could look something like this:
“Thanks for installing <name of Linux distribution here>!!!
We’d be grateful if you’d spend 30 seconds answering just a few questions on your use of this new system:
1) Purpose of this installation : (server, workstation)
2) Where is it being used : (company, home, other)
3) What kind of hardware : (raw metal, virtual machine)
And then ask if this data can be sent “home” to the Linux distribution makers. Just those three questions alone would provide, in my opinion, some very useful data on the number of Linux installations being used and what they’re being used for and where they’re being used. No need for identification of the type of company or person installing it, privacy of the user is kept (apart of course from their IP address), and if included as part of the installation process, it might guarantee a large percentage of the people installing the distribution make the effort to send the data back.
This data could then be published on the distribution makers’ websites, then we all could get a better picture of the situation.
I also wonder if the distribution producers could garner data on Linux usage based on the number of distinct ip addresses which access the respective distribution’s software and update repositories, though that would entail asking the numerous mirror repositories around the world to also supply that data, which is probably a lot to ask and is a lot of effort to collect.
I personally believe that more effort should be made to collect this usage data. It would benefit the distribution makers in that they would have real figures on just how many installations of their distros are actually out there, and it would benefit us too, for we would have a better and more factual basis for issuing a suitable riposte to the “losing market share” type of headline.
Stumble it!
I think you missed the point of the survey. It is about marketshare, ie what people are buying. Your arguments about VMs could just as easily be applied to Windows, since Windows servers are also deployed virtually. The point is where are IT managers spending their capital. Linux share of the marketplace is declining in part because of the fractured nature of the disties. The Linux distributors would be better served spending their time/effort/money on making Linux more unified and easier to use, than on instituting a silly survey.
I fully realise the point of the survey is about market share. The point of my article is to point out that actual market share - i.e. the amount of Linux servers in use in companies - is not represented by this particular type of survey, and to also point out that headlines such as eweek’s can’t be justified purely by considering the numbers produced by IDC. IDC even pointed out to eweek that actual figures for Linux use are difficult to enumerate purely because of the nature of Linux usage (putting Linux on vanilla servers, putting it on older, existing server hardware ), and that’s why I suggested distribution makers include a short survey, which I personally don’t think is a silly idea.
edit: I’ve tweaked the article a bit so as to make my point more clearly, and I also added in your point about Windows on VM’s.
I must take issue with your assertions about “the fractured nature of the disties”. I’m trying hard to parse exactly what you mean by that, and I can’t come up with anything meaningful. Care to elaborate? The same goes for “making Linux more unified”. As for “easier to use”, that all depends on the person trying to use it. Server admins generally know how to use it, non-technical folks will have more problems and a steeper learning curve, but I argue that the same goes for non-technical Windows users too. Besides which, every new distribution release seems to go forward heaps in terms of ease-of-use, and some distributions also appear to try to aim more for the non-technical users more than the techies.
[...] revealed that Al Gillen, who is a friend of Microsoft, spread some selective and fairly meaningless statistics (as in “lies, damn lies, and statistics“). His connection with Microsoft is explained [...]
I had a look at British IT job ad statistics the other day. The figures seem to dovetail nicely with the reported decline. Demand for Linux skills hit a high in July and August, after which it dropped dramatically while demand for MS skills grew steadily. Back in August, Linux was mentioned explicitly in about 45% of all ads; two months later, the number has dwindled to a mere 27%. From the looks of it, there was growing openness to OSS but “something” must have happened that put and end to it. Have employers found out that Linux fails to deliver on its promise? Did they find out that these skills are too hard to come by? Was it the impact of MS claims that Linux infringes on 235 MS patents, which I believe can be dated back to August/September?f I don’t follow the market closely enough to tell with any certainty but the number are striking. And I do know that it’s not very likely that one type of technology is growing anymore when its place in the job market is shrinking (and fast too).
The IDC report is incomplete.
It was a bad report as it gives wrong impressions
Writing an incomplete report is for a not so good reporter?
Assuming I believe what you are saying, The British IT is not the whole world now is it? Yet you use that as a proof of your point for the whole world.
Fuzzing logic aren’t we?
Believe what you want but the important thing are the facts on the ground.
One day you will wake up with a train about to hit you in the face.
That report does seem incomplete. Also the the whole British IT is such a bogus claim, people in England seem to love MS even though they get shafted all the time by MS just look at that whole BBC media player incident. But Linux IT is on the rise as more and more small to mid size businesses emerge who do not want to spend money on proprietary software just to run an office, so yes maybe those huge companies whom have an incompetent IT staff will only use MS OS/Servers but I suspect most already use Linux for all the hardcore day to day stuff. Come on now just look at the new Ubuntu Gutsy 7.10(based on Debian) now that is a thing of beauty!